China Actively Accumulates Oil - Will It Be Able to Absorb the Surplus?

China continues to build its oil reserves at a record pace – in 2025 the country is filling its storage at ≈530,000 barrels per day, bringing the total volume to 1.4 billion barrels. This helps mitigate the global oil surplus but raises questions about the future developments.

• Scale of accumulation: China – the largest oil importer – has brought reserves to 1.4 billion barrels, exceeding global demand growth (~700,000 barrels per day), of which only ~350,000 b/d is crude oil.

• Rate of accumulation: On average – 530,000 b/d in 2025, one of the highest rates since 2020.

• Strategic approach: It is forecasted that China will maintain an aggressive accumulation mode in 2026 – as the storage is only filled to ~60%.

Increasing reserves reduces the oversupply in the global market, especially in the second quarter of 2025.

Possible consequences

• Saturation risks: If the storage becomes full, China may partially return to sales, which could increase pressure on prices.

• Impact on OPEC+ policy: If China continues to buy, the cartel will have less incentive to reduce production.

• Participation in global balance: China acts as a stabilizer, helping to prevent price collapse, especially until the end of 2025.

• Monitor China’s reserve filling. As soon as the level reaches critical, sales may appear suddenly – provoking price fluctuations.

• Assess dependence on Chinese demand. Particularly relevant for companies in refining, logistics, and financial markets.

• Plan for price hedging. Considering China’s strategic accumulations, predicting demand becomes more difficult.

• Consider geopolitical dynamics. Keep an eye on changes in OPEC+ policy as well as signs of reduced oil extraction activity.

China has transformed from a passive consumer to an active absorber of the global oil surplus. The strategy of creating reserves at the level of 530,000 b/d and a total volume of 1.4 billion barrels speaks to long-term plans. Forecasts for 2026 indicate a continuation of this policy, allowing China to maintain influence in the energy market. This approach helps stabilize prices, but only as long as China remains the main reservoir for excess.

1. Why has China accumulated so much oil?
To take advantage of low prices and create a strategic buffer, as well as to prevent the market from supply crashes.

2. What is the current level of reserves?
Approximately 1.4 billion barrels, for the first time exceeding global demand growth – ~700,000 b/d.

3. How long will China continue to buy oil?
Aggressive accumulation will continue into 2026 – storage is only filled to 60%, meaning there is room for more.

4. How does this affect oil prices?
At the moment – stabilizes, reducing the excess in the market. In the future – if storage becomes full, it could have the opposite effect: a price drop.

5. What does this mean for investors?
It is recommended to closely monitor stock dynamics in China and take them into account in pricing and hedging as they affect global markets.