China Supply Signals: rates, commodities, and logistics

Every week, we publish an overview of China Supply Signals, so that companies working with China can make decisions based on current data. In 2025, the maritime shipping and commodity market shows high volatility: container rates have risen by 7% over the past three months, lithium prices are up 18% compared to last year, and delays at major Asian ports average 2–4 days. This digest consolidates key figures and trends — from the SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) to the cost of aluminum and polyethylene.

Container Rates: SCFI and FBX

• SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) for September 2025: 2540 points, a 4.6% increase over the month.

• FBX (Freightos Baltic Index) Asia → Europe: $1730 per 40HQ, which is 8% higher than in August.

• Asia → USA (West Coast): $2460 per 40HQ, +6% over the month.

• Asia → USA (East Coast): $3050 per 40HQ, +5.2%.

👉 For comparison: in 2022, the Asia-Europe costs exceeded $10,000, reflecting a return to ‘normal’ levels but with steady growth in 2025.

Delivery Times and Bottlenecks

• Average transit Asia-Europe in September 2025: 34–36 days, 2–3 day delays at Shanghai and Ningbo ports.

• Asia-USA: 18–20 days, Los Angeles congestion adds up to 48 hours.

• A new ‘green corridor’ Shanghai-Rotterdam reduces delivery by 1.5 days through logistics optimization.

Commodity Prices: Metal and Plastic

• Lithium Carbonate (99.5%): $15,200/ton, up 18% for the year.

• Cobalt: $32,800/ton, +9%.

• Aluminum: $2,390/ton, +12%.

• ABS Plastic: $1,480/ton, +7%.

• Polyethylene (HDPE): $1,240/ton, +5%.

👉 The rise in lithium and cobalt prices directly impacts battery costs, which is especially critical for electronics and electric vehicle manufacturers.

Factory and Supply News

• Manufacturing clusters in Guangdong reported a 6% decrease in load due to energy-saving restrictions.

• Exports of solar panels from China in August 2025 increased by 22% year on year.

• Leading Chinese ports invested $1.3 billion in digitizing cargo tracking, expected to reduce delays by up to 24 hours.

What Buyers Should Do Now

• Secure Long-Term Shipping Contracts: fixed rates allow savings of up to 12% when indices rise.

• Review Raw Materials Specifications: for example, switching from lithium to sodium batteries to reduce risks.

• Use Alternative Routes: transiting through new ‘green corridors’ shortens delivery times by 3–5%.

• Inspect Factories More Often: with high load, QC inspections help avoid delays caused by defects.

Autumn 2025 Trends

• Maritime shipping is expected to grow by 3–5% monthly toward the end of the year.

• Raw materials prices will remain volatile: lithium and aluminum are key drivers of cost increase.

• Port automation will reduce average delays by 1–2 days by 2026.

• Private label companies are increasing focus on certification: Amazon and EU have tightened requirements for batteries and electronics.

FAQ Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is China Supply Signals?
It is a weekly digest with current data on rates, delivery times, commodity prices, and news from Chinese factories.

2. Where do the data for the overview come from?
We use SCFI, FBX, World Container Index, and statistics from Chinese industrial clusters.

3. How often are container rates updated?
SCFI and FBX are published weekly, allowing for short-term tracking of changes.

4. Why are lithium prices increasing so much?
Due to global demand for batteries for EVs and raw material export restrictions.

5. How can companies protect themselves from market volatility?
By securing rates in long-term contracts, diversifying suppliers, and using forward warehouses.